ICMPD Migration Outlook: EU Pact as a major milestone, but 'EU must not rest'

Using analyses of migration and policy trends in the EU and beyond, the Outlook gives a preview of the issues, events, and developments to look out for in 2026.

VIENNA, AUSTRIA, January 19, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ -- EU Member States recorded a 26% decrease in irregular arrivals and a 21% decrease in asylum applications. It is the first marked decline in these figures in many years, and the International Centre for Migration Policy Development’s (ICMPD) Migration Outlook report, released today, says that this should provide momentum to the EU’s Asylum and Migration Pact implementation.

The Migration Outlook report, which charts ten migration issues to look out for in 2026, also asserts that despite Europe’s solidifying of its borders, underlying drivers of displacement remain volatile. Conflict levels are at historic highs with more than 87 countries seeing worse security situations, and major global crises can rapidly shift migration routes, risk destabilising key regions and increase pressure along established corridors.

Susanne Raab, the new ICMPD Director General says: “The migration pact is one of the most significant migration reform projects in EU history. The 2025 decline in arrivals and asylum applications now creates a rare window for delivery of the Pact. Europe can use this breathing space to make new rules work in practice, with operational readiness at borders, fair and efficient procedures, credible solidarity, and tangible progress on returns.”

The report forecasts that in 2026 and beyond, political agreements will be measured against more tangible progress, like increasing the rate at which non-EU nationals, whose asylum applications have been rejected, are returned to their countries of origin. In 2025, the return rate already rose to 27%.

The year 2026 will test the operational readiness of the Pact on Migration and Asylum, as well as Europe’s deepened ties with North African states, against a backdrop of geopolitical instability.

Ms Raab adds: “The risk of trend reversals always remains a structural feature, as geopolitical developments can alter migration trajectories at any time. Ongoing and newly emerging crises remain the main source of uncertainty in Europe’s migration outlook. However, the trends and policy measures taken to tackle irregular migration, point in a promising direction. This is why the EU must not rest but continue the swift implementation of the Pact and further strengthen its readiness.”

Beyond these headlines, the outlook points to a sustained ‘realpolitik turn’ in migration policy, the growing role of labour migration in EU geopolitics, and the rise of skills-based approaches as cooperation expands between governments, the private sector, and intermediary actors.

Ten issues to look out for in 2026:
1. Record conflict levels sustaining high displacement risks
2. Global crises as the great unknown in Europe’s migration outlook
3. Growing impacts of cuts to humanitarian aid and refugee support
4. Deepened EU-North Africa relations amid migration pressures and labour mobility initiatives
5. The new pact and the hard slog of implementation
6. The push for tangible results after setting a new returns framework
7. A sustained ‘realpolitik turn’ in migration policy
8. Labour migration in EU geopolitics
9. The rise of a skills-based approach
10. Two scenarios after the US strike in Venezuela

Read the full Migration Outlook 2026 here: https://www.icmpd.org/file/download/66836/file/ICMPD%2520Migration%2520Outlook%25202026.pdf

Bernhard Schragl
International Centre for Migration Policy Development
+43 676 7147002
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